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Tuesday, April 19, 2016

04.19.2016 XAGUSD long term count


02.05.2015 XAGUSD long term count and historical charts // Silver

the called low was premature. Price decided to make a new low around one year later. The recent low is only marginal lower than the one I called (so far).

When the recent low occurred, it was accompanied by extreme bearishnesses. The sentiment index only showed around 3% bulls at that time

see, how red A is equal red C

monthly TF

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Tuesday, April 12, 2016

12.04.2016 EURJPY long term count


 01.31.2015 EURJPY short term count

count was spot on

03.07.2015 EURJPY short term count

sorry, in this posting I published the wrong picture without noticing it  :-(

actual count:

 time to go long?

weekly TF

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Saturday, April 2, 2016

04.02.2016 EURUSD long and short term counts

Following is my main count in EU

As I have laid out numerous times, I decided for this count, because the waves blue 1 to 3 down, as well as their subwaves have exceptionally well fib-ratios.

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But on the other hand, a count has to have the right look. What is disturbing in this count, is the fact, that the blue wave 2 is so tiny in price and time, and the wave 4, regardless if we deem it as already finished or ongoing, is so much bigger in price and time.

Even when we think, that the wave blue 4 is already finished, it looks a bit strange to me.

Add to this, that the sideways correction (the wave blue 4) might not be over at all. I counted the downward movement from the 1.17 high as red 1,2,3, now in 4. It would be more like a leading diagonal than an ending diagonal, because when we look at the structure of the waves red 1 and 3 they do look pretty impulsive.

The wave red 4 is now at the verge of invalidating this leading diagonal count. Above 1.1495 will not only invalidate the leading diagonal but also my main count at all, because the supposed to be wave blue 4 would transform into a larger sideways structure.

Generally speaking: the chance, that my main count is wrong are getting pretty high.

We had discussed earlier, that there is a pretty good chance, that the whole impulse down from the 1.399x high down to the 1.04x low is a finished impulse

One can count it as following:

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Since the structure in the pattern since the 1.04x low has now clear impulsive starting pattern, chance is very high, that this all is only a sideways pattern.

Some questioned me, if the move from the 1.04x to the 1.17x high could not be counted as leading diagonal. Yes, it can be counted as leading diagonal, even the following decline was deep enough to justify this assumption.

But: leading diagonals most of the time have clear impulsive structure 5-3-5-3-5. This starting sequence from the low does have a pattern that looks for me like 3-3-3-3-3

Now will be decision time, if price will end the wave C here (then chances for a prolonged sideways movement is very high in form of a contracting triangle), or if we shoot higher (chance would than be high, that all of the overlapping movements since the 1.05 low were multiple 1-2 startsequences. In this case price may easily reach into the 1.2x territory.

At the moment i lean towards the immediate bearish case. In this case, we can count the movements up since the low on 03.24.2016 as ABC-x-ABC as shown below:

EU 1h TF

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Fib confluences in the upmove

EU 2h TF

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The current Daily Sentiment Index is around 73% bulls.

Retail trader are heavilly short at the moment, but have staggered their huge bullish bets just below of 1.13 according to Oanda and Saxo Bank (showing their longer term bullish mindset).

COT data show, that the commercials are further reducing their long positions, whereas the small and large trader are about to go long. Since the data of the COT is, as every time, from Tuesdays, the data is a bit lagging. Maybe we can see next week, that the large traders are net long and the Commercials are net short.

The COT Index is near an ideal position to think about short positions

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Thursday, March 24, 2016

03.24.2016 EURUSD short term count

I am not so sure about the EU at the moment.

My main count is described here:

There you will find the rationale for counting the bottom at 1,04x as the end of a wave 3.

After that the high at 1.1714 is now the wave 4.

Problem with this count is: the wave 4 should have concluded. When we trace out a higher high above 1.1714, then this count is probably wrong.

The wave 5 down may trace out a leading diagonal, where we would now be in the wave 4 up, or already wave 5 down.

The wave 5 down may also trace out an ending diagonal, where we have seen a wave 1 down to 1,0522 (ABC), and are now in a wave 2 up or already in wave 3 down.

Quite another possibility is, that the first impulse down was finished at 1,04x, as you showed on your chart.

Question is: is it reasonable to assume, that the EU will drop next in a wave 3 and 5 to come, which would mean, that we can easily reach below 0.7?

I do not know. All I do know is, that the wave down from the 1.3993 high is pretty impulsive. The following movements since the bottom are very corrective, which spells for me: continuation pattern

Maybe this? 03.10.2015 EURUSD long term count - food for thought

All in all: this is what I see

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maybe this (as described in above link):

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my near term main count:

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the channel gets respect:

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at the long term 50% line:

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short term observations since the 1.1342 top from 03.17.2016:

as marked on the following chart the waves do not only look corrective, but also you can see many overlaps in previous waves

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my COT data analysis last week involving DX, Crude, Oil, and EURUSD (all ponting to higher USD)

Well, short term we may see another rise in EURUSD, mainly because to resolve the recent overlapping downward movement. Intermediate term/long term I also see declining EURUSD

On Monday the daily sentiment index in EURUSD stood at 60%EURUSD bulls. Unfortunately for us: can go both direction

EURUSD 30min chart:


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